The Global Plastics Treaty

A legally binding Global Plastics Treaty, currently being negotiated at the fifth session of the International Negotiating Committee (INC 5.2), could reshape how the world addresses the plastic crisis, with a final agreement expected by 14 August. After failed talks in 2024 in Busan, South Korea, 170 UN member states have reconvened in an attempt to agree on a comprehensive framework to end plastic pollution.

The Scale of the Problem

Today, the world produces over 460 million tonnes of plastic annually, and if current trends continue, this figure could double by 2045. Of all the plastic produced only 9% is recycled and 22% leaks into the environment. An estimated 109 million tonnes of plastic have already accumulated in rivers, with another 30 million tonnes now present in the ocean. These figures reflect a system that is not only broken but actively worsening.

What’s Being Negotiated

More than 100 countries support a global phasedown of plastic production, recognizing that limiting plastic at the source is the most effective way to halt pollution. However, that ambition is facing strong resistance from powerful nations including the United States, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. While they aren’t negotiating as a formal bloc, they share a key position: they want to prioritize waste management over production cuts.

This resistance is not surprising. These countries are among the world’s largest oil and plastic producers, with deep economic and political ties to continued plastic production. For the fossil fuel industry, plastics are becoming a critical fallback as global demand for fossil fuels in energy and transport declines. In fact, plastic production is expected to become one of the biggest sources of demand for oil in the coming decades. It is no coincidence that the fossil fuel industry was the most heavily represented delegation at INC-4.

Why Focusing on Production Matters

Recycling merely extends the lifespan of plastic but does not prevent its inevitable disposal. Most plastics cannot be recycled indefinitely, and much of what is labeled “recyclable” still ends up in landfills, incinerators, or leaking into the environment.

Meanwhile, biodegradable plastics, often marketed as eco-friendly alternatives, are equally problematic. They tend to break down into microplastics even more rapidly than conventional plastics, and their production demands significant land, water, and energy resources, making them unsustainable at scale. Efforts to clean plastic from oceans, though well-intentioned, are neither technically feasible nor economically scalable and ultimately serve as a distraction from the core issue: the continued overproduction of plastic.

In essence, these approaches represent false solutions. They allow business-as-usual practices to continue, often wrapped in the language of sustainability, while failing to confront the root cause of the crisis.

The Price of Plastic: Cheaper Than It Should Be

A critical piece of the problem lies in the artificially low cost of plastic. The environmental and social costs, polluted ecosystems, health risks, and climate impacts, are not reflected in its price. Instead, fossil fuel subsidies keep virgin plastic production cheap and profitable.

In 2024 alone, the top 15 polymer-producing countries received $43 billion in subsidies, covering everything from feedstocks to processing energy. This level of financial support rivals the subsidies given to other environmentally harmful sectors like metal mining ($40 billion) and fisheries ($55 billion).

To shift toward sustainable alternatives, economic incentives must change. This means scaling back fossil fuel subsidies and introducing measures that raise the cost of virgin plastics, while supporting investment in non-plastic substitutes, recycled materials, and circular business models.

Turning this plan into reality will require a shift in economic incentives. On the supply side, that means scaling back fossil fuel subsidies to raise the cost of producing virgin plastics, while encouraging investment in non-plastic alternatives and circular business models.

A Critical Turning Point

The Global Plastics Treaty represents a vital opportunity to reset how the world addresses plastic pollution, not by focusing solely on cleanup, but by tackling the crisis at its source. Yet the consensus-based structure of the negotiations has allowed fossil fuel–aligned nations to slow progress.

The world cannot afford another decade of delay. If the treaty is to succeed, it must go beyond waste management and take bold, enforceable action to cap and reduce plastic production.

The outcome in Geneva this August will reveal whether the global community is truly ready to confront the plastic crisis, or whether industry interests will continue to shape the future of the planet’s most pervasive pollutant.